Minnesota Department of Transportation

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Minnesota Statewide Archaeological Predictive Model

Project Results

MnModel's predictive power has improved through the successive phases of the project. These improvements have been achieved by better data and refined modeling procedures.

Phase 1

Phase 1 site probability model

Phase 1 site probability model.

Phase 1 models (1996) were developed for only 27 counties. They predict sites 22%-54% better than by random chance alone.

Phase 2

Phase 2 site Probability Model

Phase 2 site probability model.

Phase 2 models (1997) were developed for the entire state. They predict sites 28%-89% better than by random chance alone.

Phase 3

Phase 3 Survey Implementation Model

Phase 3 Survey Implementation model.

Phase 3 incorporated information about the likelihood of surveys into the predictive models. The Phase 3 Survey Implementation Model (1998) predicts sites 44%-90% better than by random chance alone. It also indicates areas where the potential for sites is unknown because of inadequate survey information.

Phase 4

Surface hydrography model

Surface hydrography model.

Phase 4 is in progress. Environmental and archaeological data have been updated, new environmental data have become available, new statistical methods have been developed, and models of prehistoric/historic surface hydrography have been created.