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Minnesota Statewide Archaeological Predictive Model

MnModel Phase 4

Hydric soils

Historic surface hydrography

Phase 3 models have been in use for more than 10 years. Over that time period, the archaeological database has grown, more high quality, high resolution GIS data has become available, and PC-based computing and GIS software have improved. All of these will contribute to the development of Phase 4 models that should be improvements over the Phase 3 models in several ways.

Phase 4 Goals

The purpose of Phase 4 is to improve the accuracy and reliability of the archaeological predictive models. More accurate models will be characterized by one or more of the following:

  • a higher proportion of sites predicted.
  • a smaller area of high and medium site potential.
  • a smaller area of unknown site potential.
  • greater model stability.

Phase 4 Data

Phase 4 of MnModel will take advantage of better, higher resolution environmental data that are now available. In addition, MnDOT is digitizing archaeological site and survey boundaries to improve the archaeological database.

Phase 4 Research Design

Modeling procedures are being updated for Phase 4. In Phase 3, environmental variable were based on measurements from modern surface water features and very generalized historic vegetation maps. In Phase 4, models of historic and prehistoric surface water features, as well as models of historic vegetation, will be created and environmental variables will be based on them. Statistical modeling procedures have been updated as well, so that modelers will be able to select from eight different prediction methods.

Phase 4 Results

Phase 4 models will be developed by Ecological Classification System Subsection. Results will be posted on this site when they become available.