Minnesota Department of Transportation

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Minnesota Statewide Archaeological Predictive Model

Project Results

MnModel's predictive power has improved through the successive phases of the project. These improvements have been achieved by better data and refined modeling procedures.

Phase 1

Phase 1 models (1996) were developed for only 27 counties. They predict sites 22-54 percent better than by random chance alone.


Map of the Phase 1 site probability model

Phase 1 site probability model.


Phase 2

Phase 2 models (1997) were the first models developed for the entire state. They predict sites 28-89 percent better than by random chance alone.


map of the Phase 2 site Probability Model

Phase 2 site probability model.


Phase 3

Phase 3 models (1998) predicted sites 44-90 percent better than by random chance alone. Twenty-three percent of the state was classified as high or medium site potential. The Phase 3 Survey Implementation Model was the first to indicate areas where potential for sites is unknown because of inadequate survey information.

Map of the phase 3 site probability model

Phase 3 site probability model.


Phase 4

Phase 4 models (2019) predict sites 78-96 percent better than by chance alone. Only 13 percent of the state is classified as high site potential.





Map of the phase 4 site probability model

Phase 4 site probability model.